Human Population Growth

I have spent a lot of time telling you that exponential growth is an unrealistic model of population growth. Interestingly, human populations have experienced exponential-like growth. How can this be?

What makes humans different from other species?

In other species per capita birth rates and per capita deaths rates are density dependent. However, as human populations have increased there has been no corresponding decline in per rates or increase in death rates. What makes humans different from other species?

Humans have the ability to alter their environment so that they can avoid the density dependent effects on birth and death rates. 1) Humans have increased food production by improvements in agriculture (e.g., irrigation, fertilization, mechanized farming, genetically improved crops). 2) Humans have been able to decrease death rates by improvements in medicine and public health (things as simple as not pooping in the water you drink helps a lot!). 3) Humans have elimnated most human predators (ocassionally, someone gets killed by a shark or a mountain lion).

Where is human population growth occuring?

The rates of human population growth are not the same in all regions. Today, human populations are increasing in size much faster in developing countries (e.g., Mexico, other countries in Central America, Africa, and Southeast Asia) than they are in developed countries (e.g, USA, Canda, Western Europe). The figure at the top of this post shows the patterns of population growth in developed and developing nations.

Thus we see that populations are increasing most rapidly in the countries that are least able to deal with a rapidly increasing population. See "Population Challenges-The Basics" that can be downloaded from the Population Institute's website.
http://www.populationinstitute.org/population-issues/index.php

Human Population Growth Proble?

There is a great deal of debate about whether increasing human populations are a problem or not, and if they are what should be done about it. Unfortunately, we don't have time to discuss this issue in very much detail in class. My personal opinion is that we have too many people consuming too many resources and the last thing that we need are billions more people living on the planet. This is an issue that I am always intersted in talking more about if you would like to chat.

Further Reading

The section on Human Population Growth in your textbook is quite good.

Also see the article "Human Population Explostion" from the EoE.
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Human_population_explosion

Both of these contain a good discussion of the "demographic transition".

Really Cool Video

Here is a link to a YouTube video on "World Population" The first minute and a half or so is a little boring, so you can skip over it if you wish. However, I think the animation showing when and where human population growth has been occuring is really cool.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BbkQiQyaYc

Expected Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course a fully engaged student should be able to

- describe patterns of human population growth in developed and developing nations
- discuss some reasons why the pattern of population growth in humans is so different from that in other species
- describe the demographic transition
- discuss their own personal view of human population growth.

Past Test Questions (answers at bottom of post)

1. In developing countries, why have per capita birth rates not decreased as human populations have increased in size?
(a) because we have increased rates of food production
(b) because of the improvements in education of women
(c) because of improvements in medical care
(d) a and c
(e) a, b, and c

2. Why do some people consider the high growth rates of human populations in developing countries to be of concern?
(a) because many people are born into conditions that do not provide them enough food
(b) because many people are born into conditions without clean water and adequate sanitation
(c) because increasing population sizes have led to increasing habitat destruction
(d) a, b, and c
(e) none of the above

answers- 1.d, 2.d

Population Growth IV- Final Thoughts

We have discussed how population ecologists have tried to develop a model (the logistic growth model) that helps them to understand the factors that affect population growth.

We talked a lot about the graph plotting how the populaiton size would vary over time in a population that started much smaller than the carrying capacity (the s-curve). Why does logistic growth show this pattern.

Initially, the population is growing slowly. When populations are small the per capita growth rate is large but because there are only a few individuals in the population rN is small. Over time, the population growth rate increases becasue populations are still small enough that r is still relatively large and now a larger N allows rN to be a bigger number. Population growth rate starts to slow as populations reach their carrying capacity because in large populations the per capitat growth rate is small and even though N is large rN is small. When the population reaches its carrying capacity b = d, so population growth stops.

Density Dependent Population Regulation

We notice that populations don't keep increasing in size forever. That is because populations are naturally self regulating. As population size increases the per capita birth rate declines for the biological reasons that we discused earlier. (When a parameter decreases as population size increases that parameter is said to be negatively density dependent. As population size increases the per capitat death rates increase for the biological reasons that we discussed earlier. (when a parameter increases as the population size increases that parameter is said to be positively density dependent). Thus, the per capita birth and death rates are naturally density dependent in such a way that eventually causes the population size of species to stop growing.

Past Test Questions (answers at bottom of post)

1. In logistic growth, what is the per capita growth rate when N = 1/2K?
(a) rmax
(b) 2(rmax)
(c) ½ (rmax)
(d) it is a maximum
(e) you can not answer this questions with the information provided.

2. How can you calculate the population growth rate?
(a) subtract B from D
(b) add the per capita death rate to the per capita birth rate
(c) multiply r by N
(d) divide dN/dt by N
(e) a and c

3. Why don’t we expect raccoons to show exponential growth?
(a) per capita birth rates increase as population sizes increase
(b) per capita death rates increase as population sizes increase
(c) per capita birth rates decrease as population sizes increase
(d) b and c
(e) none of the above

4. Which of the following are true when populations are at their carrying capacity?
(a) dN/dt > 0
(b) r < 0
(c) b = d
(d) B > D
(e) a and d


answers- 1.e, 2.c, 3.d, 4.c

Final Thought About Sexual Selection- The Exception that Proves the Rule

When I introduced the topic of sexual selection I mentioned that the critical difference between males and females was the size and function of their gametes and that that difference was the cause for many of the differences between males and females we are familiar with. Because they typically invest more resources in each offspring we expect that females should be choosy about who the mate with and that males should compete for the opportunity to mate with females. Sexual selection has resulted in the production of brightly colored and ornamented males who use coloration and ornamentation to attract females.

Thus, when we see sexual dimorphism in birds we generally conclude that the brightly colored individual is the male while the dull colored individual is the female. At the top of the page is a picture of a male and female Red Phalarope. Based on what we have learned so far it would be easy to conclude that the brightly colored bird was a male. However, if you did so, you would be wrong! How can this be?

It turns out that phalaropes, and othe birds like them, are the exception that proves the rule. Phalaropes have a polyandrous mating system (one female mates with many males). After a female phalarope mates with a male she lays the eggs which are taken care of by the male. While the male is looking after the eggs, the female heads off in search of another male to mate with. Thus, in polyandrous birds, the investment of time by the male actually means that the male invests more in each offspring. Thus, in polyandrous species males are more choosy about who they should mate with than are females and females are brightly colored in an attempt to attract males. Pretty cool!!!!

Schedule for First Midterm

The 1st midterm is exam is scheduled from 6:00 to 7:30 PM on February 3rd, 2009. I believe that you will take the exam in your normal classroom (if this is not the case then I will make announcements in class and post on the blog).

The retest for the 1st midterm is scheduled from 6:00 to 7:30 PM on February 19,2009.

Group Selection

In class on Friday morning someone asked the question "Why doesn't group selection work?". This is a good and important questions. Unfortunately, we are just a little bit behind schedule so I am sorry that I wasn't able to spend the time in class to answer this question. Let me try to answer the question here.

Group selection is the hypothesis that organisms have the traits they do (including altruistic traits) because selection has produced traits that assure that species survive. Although this is intuitively an OK idea, it turns out that it doesn't work.

Have you ever noticed large "roosts" of birds in trees around town. Roosting birds gather by the hundreds or thousands in one, or a few, trees (maybe you have mistakenly parked you car underneath a roost and suffered the consequences). Biologists are interested in understanding the causes of roosting behavior. People who support the group selection hypothesis have proposed that the reason that these birds are roosting is that it gives them an opportunity to examine how large their population is. Becasue the birds do not want to overpopulate their environment, because overpopulation could lead to a loss of all of the food so that the entire species dies, birds want to know how many other birds are there so they know how much to reproduce. If birds see that the roosts are large then they know that the population is large so they decide to produce only a few babies. However, if the birds see that the roost is small then they are decide to produce many babies. Thus, the population never gets so large that they eat up all of the food.

Unfortunately, the math required for group selection just doesn't work out. Imagine a species of birds that mated monogamously for life. If the parents wanted to keep population sizes constant than their best strategy would be to produce two offspring during their life so that they make just enough kids to replace themselves. For this to happen all females would have a gene that said "make two babies". Imagine that a mutation occurs that says "make three babies". This mutation would quickly spread througout the population so that eventually all females would produce babies. If mutations that said produce 4 or more babies occurred then these mutations would also spread. It is thus possible to imagine that each female would make so many babies that the population would indeed get large enough to consume all of the food which would cause the population to go extinct. Thus, the math of natural selection does not allow organisms to artificially reduce their fitness for the "good of the species".

The observation that led group selectionist to thinking that roosting and reproduction could be explained by group selection was that females produced fewer eggs when more individuals were at the roost than when fewer individuals were at the roost. Can you think of another hypothesis to explain this observation?

So why do birds form roosts? There are at least two hypotheses. First, some scientists propose that organisms roost because they are safer from predators when living in large groups. Others think that organisms form roosts because they can benefit from information gained by living with lots of other individuals. For example, if you flew to the south to look for food and didn't find much and you noticed that those birds returning to the roost from the north looked well fed, then you might head out to the north the next day.

Fun With Graphs- Quiz Yourself

Here are some questions that I have designed to let you know if you are understanding the graphs well enough to meet the course expected learning outcomes. I suggest that you do not try to answer these questions until you have thoroughly reviewed all of the information about the population ecology graphs. (I will put the answers for the multiple choice questions at the bottom of this post, for the others you need to find out whether your answers are correct or not).

1. What are the correct axes for a graph showing how population growth rate depends on population size in logistic growth?

a) x- N y- t
b) x- N y- dN/dt
c) x- dN/dt y- N
d) x- dN/dt y- t
e) x- N y- r

2. Which of the following best describes the graph that shows how the per capita growth rate varies over time in exponential growth?

a) the per capita growth rate decreases over time
b) the per capita growth rate increases over time
c) the per capita growth rate does not change over time
d) the per capita growth rate increases until it reaches a maximum and then decreases to zero when the population reaches the carrying capacity
e) the per capita death rate is initially very negative and gets less negative over time.

3. What would I ask to make you draw this graph?
a) show how the population size varies over time in logistic growth when the initial population size is much smaller than the carrying capacity
b) show how the population growth rate depends on the population size in logistic growth when the intitial population is much smaller than the carrying capacity
c) show how the population size depends on population size in logistic growth when the initial population size is much smaller than the carryuing capacity
d) show how the population size varies over time in logistic growth when the intitial population is much larger than the carrying capacity

4. What are the axes of a graph showing how the per capita growth rate depends on the population size in logistic growth?

a) x- logistic y- exponential
b) x- logistic y- r
c) x-N y-r
d) x-r y-N
e) x-N y-dN/dt

5. Which of the following is true when populations are at their carrying capacity?

a) N = 100 individuals
b) dN/dt = 0
c) b > d
d) b = d
e) b and d

6. Describe how the population growth rate varies over time in logistic growth when the intial population size is much larger than the carrying capacity.

7. Draw the graph that shows how the population size varies over time in logistic growth when the initial population size is much smaller than the carrying capacity.

Answers. 1.c, 2.c, 3.b, 4.c, 5.e

Population Ecology III- Logistic Growth

We are trying to develop a mathematical model that helps us to understand patterns of population growth. So far our first attempt, the exponential growth model, did not help us to understand population growth (for reasons that I hope that you understand by now).

The "Real" world

In our attemtp to think about population growth in the real world, we attempted to examine how per capitat birth rates and per capitat death rates should vary as population size varies. The model that describes this pattern of growth is known as the logistic growth model. It is important to realize that although this model is much more realistic, and therefore useful to us, than the exponential growth model, the logistic growth model still only exmaines what I call "the theoretical real world". That is, this model applies to our ideas about how populations should generally behave and do not thus relate directly to studying the population sizes of white tailed deer in central Texas or parrot fish on a coral reef in Fiji. These real world situations are much harder to understand than the simple "idealized" populations that I am talking about in BIOL 1404. You can take an Advanced Population Biology course if you want to learn more about how to apply these models to the "real real world".

Logistic Growth

We have discussed why, in the real world, r should decrease as population sizes increase. If this is the case then there is a population size at which the per capita birth rate equals the per capita death rate. We call this population size the carrying capacity.

1) When populations are smaller than the carrying capacity we expect them to increase in size until they reach the carrying capacity.

2) When populations are larger than carrying capacity we espect them to decrease in size untile they reach the carrying capacity.

3) When the population size equals the carrying capacity we expect no change in the size of the population.

The logistic growth equation is a mathematical equation developed by biologists to describe patterns of population growth consistent with the ideas above. Before focusing on the biological isights that we can gain from the logistic growth model (the real purpose of everything we have been doing) it is important to really understand patterns of logistic growth. Hopefully, this powerpoint presentation will help you understand these patterns better.

Powerpoint Presentation

Click here for a powerpoint presentation entitled "Fun With Graphs- Logistic Growth"

http://www.slideshare.net/secret/gyB3cjnSplLw41

Expected Learning Outcomes

By the end of this course a fully engaged students should be able to

- define the carrying capacity
- draw, and interpret the following graphs associated with logistic growth
-how population size changes over time in logistic growth when the initial population size is much smaller than the carrying capacity
-how the population size changes over time in logistic growth when the initial population size is much larger than the carrying capacity
-how population growth rate changes over time in logistic growth when the initial population size is much smaller than the carrying capacity
-how the population growth rate changes over time in logistic growth when the initial population size is much larger than the carrying capacity
-how the per capita growth rate varies over time in logistic growth
-how the population growth rate varies over time in logistic growth

- discuss the causes for the shape of the s-curve (this answer will need to include a discussion of both math and biology)

- discuss the factors that regulate population size, be able to distinguish between density dependent and density independent factors that regulate population growth and give examples